FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

113.88 – 59.63

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

86 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 195.3 ±13.9

1504Desperate Penguins

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 20.91Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6078RoboRams

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 64.26Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7289Blue Eagles

Season APEX 59.2Event APEX 28.71Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 139.3 ±13.3

5674The Gearhounds

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 47.91Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9203Quake

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX 1.61Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5704Weird & Wired

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 10.11Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1504, 6078, 7289

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1504, 6078, 7289

Auto

29.3 27%

Teleop

51.1 47%

Endgame

29.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5674, 9203, 5704

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5674, 9203, 5704

Auto

10.6 17%

Teleop

30.3 50%

Endgame

20.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score113.9pts

Blue projected score59.6pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.2
Score range: 32–142
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 143 vs event baseline 158.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

195.3Season APEX139.3

29.3Auto10.6

51.1Teleop30.3

29.1Endgame20.2

33Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	6
teleop	44	28
endgame	21	18
foul	0	5
total	86	57

Result

Final score

86 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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