FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

137.38 – 37.21

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

264 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 63.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 399.5 ±11.1

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 95.63Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10577TARMINATORS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 26.59Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9251EliteBots

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 15.16Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.8 ±12.8

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 20.41Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5704Weird & Wired

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 30.49Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8362Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX -13.69Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7166, 10577, 9251

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7166, 10577, 9251

Auto

27.8 21%

Teleop

81.3 60%

Endgame

25.6 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6085, 5704, 8362

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6085, 5704, 8362

Auto

4.8 13%

Teleop

9.6 26%

Endgame

22.2 61%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.09 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score137.4pts

Blue projected score37.2pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 100.2
Score range: 13–161
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 301 vs event baseline 134.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

399.5Season APEX165.8

27.8Auto4.8

81.3Teleop9.6

25.6Endgame22.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	10
teleop	160	14
endgame	71	8
foul	0	5
total	264	37

Result

Final score

264 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 63.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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