FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

249.45 – 166.14

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

309 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 36.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 593.3 ±9.3

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 45.14Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2137The Oxford RoboCats

Season APEX 269.8Event APEX 161.1Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 43.21Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 207.6 ±12.7

10606The Foley Flare

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 31.64Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5674The Gearhounds

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 10.52Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5926Da Moose

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 123.98Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 910, 2137, 9312

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 910, 2137, 9312

Auto

58.1 23%

Teleop

124.6 50%

Endgame

66.5 27%

Strengths

· 2137 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10606, 5674, 5926

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10606, 5674, 5926

Auto

34.7 21%

Teleop

93.8 57%

Endgame

34.9 21%

Strengths

· 5926 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.2 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score249.5pts

Blue projected score166.1pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.3
Score range: 143–272
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 462 vs event baseline 128.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

593.3Season APEX207.6

58.1Auto34.7

124.6Teleop93.8

66.5Endgame34.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	111	23
teleop	146	54
endgame	52	66
foul	0	10
total	309	153

Result

Final score

309 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 36.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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