FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

131.41 – 151.77

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

99 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 196.7 ±12.8

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 70.86Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9237The Dragonators

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 49.6Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1940Tech Tigers 1940

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 10.95Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.6 ±11.7

11444Cougar Claw Robotics

Season APEX 48.4Event APEX 24.04Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 109.19Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7491Cyber Soldiers

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 18.54Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8179, 9237, 1940

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8179, 9237, 1940

Auto

28.2 22%

Teleop

64.7 50%

Endgame

36.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11444, 5712, 7491

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11444, 5712, 7491

Auto

29.0 19%

Teleop

78.5 52%

Endgame

43.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score131.4pts

Blue projected score151.8pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.4
Score range: 107–176
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 306 vs event baseline 131.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

196.7Season APEX360.6

28.2Auto29

64.7Teleop78.5

36.7Endgame43.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	34
teleop	52	117
endgame	25	56
foul	0	0
total	99	207

Result

Final score

99 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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