Qualification · Qualification 15
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
168.68 – 79.53
75%25%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
52 – 100
Prediction missed · off by 68.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 166.2 ±13.9
Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 70.02Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 40.4Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 58.26Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 181.6 ±12.2
Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 50.25Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 38Event APEX -3.27Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 32.55Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6591, 9753, 6078
77
/ 100 compatProjected
168.7 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 6591, 9753, 6078
Auto
29.8 18%
Teleop
101.1 60%
Endgame
38.2 23%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3655, 11490, 9255
52
/ 100 compatProjected
79.5 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 3655, 11490, 9255
Auto
19.4 25%
Teleop
45.1 57%
Endgame
14.5 18%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.05
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score168.7pts
Blue projected score79.5pts
Red win probability75%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 41%, blue 51%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 89.2
- Score range
- 56–193
- Upset likelihood
- 25%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
166.2Season APEX181.6
29.8Auto19.4
101.1Teleop45.1
38.2Endgame14.5
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 15 | 17 |
| teleop | 14 | 61 |
| endgame | 23 | 22 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 52 | 100 |
Result
Final score
52 – 100
Prediction missed · off by 68.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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