FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

97.72 – 60.45

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

148 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 29.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.9 ±9.8

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 25.3Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11503TALONS

Season APEX 88.2Event APEX 13.47Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 58.95Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 183.8 ±13.3

5225The Shambotz

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 19.8Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9251EliteBots

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 25.3Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1504Desperate Penguins

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 15.35Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9312, 11503, 4327

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9312, 11503, 4327

Auto

17.9 18%

Teleop

52.9 55%

Endgame

26.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5225, 9251, 1504

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5225, 9251, 1504

Auto

14.9 25%

Teleop

29.0 48%

Endgame

15.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score97.7pts

Blue projected score60.5pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.3
Score range: 35–123
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 218 vs event baseline 137.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.9Season APEX183.8

17.9Auto14.9

52.9Teleop29

26.1Endgame15.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	15
teleop	80	40
endgame	36	15
foul	0	0
total	148	70

Result

Final score

148 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 29.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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