FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

104.14 – 193.43

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

137 – 51

Prediction missed · off by 87.6 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.8 ±12.4

6591Panther Powered Robotics 6591

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 61.71Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 21.43Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5704Weird & Wired

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 21Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191.2 ±12.2

5225The Shambotz

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 61.71Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 110.29Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8374Bongo Bots

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 21.43Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6591, 910, 5704

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6591, 910, 5704

Auto

20.7 20%

Teleop

56.7 55%

Endgame

24.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5225, 8179, 8374

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5225, 8179, 8374

Auto

45.4 23%

Teleop

101.1 52%

Endgame

46.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score104.1pts

Blue projected score193.4pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.3
Score range: 82–215
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 188 vs event baseline 123.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315.8Season APEX191.2

20.7Auto45.4

56.7Teleop101.1

24.9Endgame46.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	14
teleop	70	25
endgame	55	12
foul	0	0
total	137	51

Result

Final score

137 – 51

Prediction missed · off by 87.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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