Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

237.86 – 254.31

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

359 – 260

Prediction missed · off by 63.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 531.3 ±9.9

4130The Blue Devils

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 22.1Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 112.81Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 102.95Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 456.2 ±10.5

9558The Steel Vipers

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 13.03Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 135.09Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5843Flurb

Season APEX 144.7Event APEX 106.19Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4130, 2851, 9245

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4130, 2851, 9245

Auto

60.5 26%

Teleop

121.8 53%

Endgame

46.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9558, 1498, 5843

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9558, 1498, 5843

Auto

41.1 16%

Teleop

146.1 58%

Endgame

66.0 26%

Strengths

· 1498 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score237.9pts

Blue projected score254.3pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.4
Score range: 213–279
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 619 vs event baseline 141.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

531.3Season APEX456.2

60.5Auto41.1

121.8Teleop146.1

46.8Endgame66

11Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	43
teleop	184	145
endgame	75	72
foul	20	0
total	359	260

Result

Final score

359 – 260

Prediction missed · off by 63.4 pts

Match videos

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