Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

109.1 – 186.59

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 365.9 ±12.2

5926Da Moose

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 49.32Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

453Rockem Sockem Robotics

Season APEX 66.2Event APEX 25.8Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 33.98Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 514.8 ±9.9

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 96.69Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 28.05Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 61.85Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5926, 453, 11493

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5926, 453, 11493

Auto

20.0 17%

Teleop

63.0 52%

Endgame

37.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8280, 8728, 10349

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8280, 8728, 10349

Auto

24.3 13%

Teleop

113.0 61%

Endgame

46.8 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score109.1pts

Blue projected score186.6pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77.5
Score range: 84–212
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 258 vs event baseline 139.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

365.9Season APEX514.8

20Auto24.3

63Teleop113

37.2Endgame46.8

0Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	33
teleop	38	112
endgame	22	29
foul	0	5
total	79	179

Result

Final score

79 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 pts

Match videos

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