Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

145.82 – 127.49

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

272 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 85.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 423.7 ±11.1

6120CyberStangs

Season APEX 78.1Event APEX 40.36Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7211Hollywood

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 48.11Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 57.35Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 520.4 ±9.9

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 31.08Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3667Mecanum Knights

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 48.84Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 47.57Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6120, 7211, 51

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6120, 7211, 51

Auto

13.5 9%

Teleop

81.1 56%

Endgame

49.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1506, 3667, 818

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1506, 3667, 818

Auto

23.7 20%

Teleop

66.9 56%

Endgame

29.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score145.8pts

Blue projected score127.5pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.3
Score range: 102–171
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 354 vs event baseline 139.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

423.7Season APEX520.4

13.5Auto23.7

81.1Teleop66.9

49.2Endgame29.2

14Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	28
teleop	168	22
endgame	40	22
foul	30	10
total	272	82

Result

Final score

272 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 85.8 pts

Match videos

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