Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

230.81 – 138.62

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

268 – 0

Prediction correct · off by 87.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 531.3 ±9.9

4130The Blue Devils

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 19.38Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 108.55Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 102.88Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.9 ±12.2

5926Da Moose

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 59.16Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

453Rockem Sockem Robotics

Season APEX 66.2Event APEX 35.01Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 44.45Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4130, 2851, 9245

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4130, 2851, 9245

Auto

56.0 25%

Teleop

128.9 56%

Endgame

43.5 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5926, 453, 11493

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5926, 453, 11493

Auto

20.3 15%

Teleop

71.1 53%

Endgame

41.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score230.8pts

Blue projected score138.6pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.2
Score range: 114–256
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 268 vs event baseline 137.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

531.3Season APEX365.9

56Auto20.3

128.9Teleop71.1

43.5Endgame41.9

20Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	25
teleop	100	37
endgame	56	16
foul	30	5
total	268	0

Result

Final score

268 – 0

Prediction correct · off by 87.9 pts

Match videos

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