Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

254.76 – 185.43

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

288 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 456.2 ±10.5

9558The Steel Vipers

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 13.01Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 134.62Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5843Flurb

Season APEX 144.7Event APEX 107.13Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 514.8 ±9.9

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 96.45Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 27.35Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 61.63Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9558, 1498, 5843

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9558, 1498, 5843

Auto

40.3 16%

Teleop

147.9 58%

Endgame

65.8 26%

Strengths

· 1498 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8280, 8728, 10349

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8280, 8728, 10349

Auto

27.3 15%

Teleop

109.7 60%

Endgame

46.0 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score254.8pts

Blue projected score185.4pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.3
Score range: 159–281
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 502 vs event baseline 146.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

456.2Season APEX514.8

40.3Auto27.3

147.9Teleop109.7

65.8Endgame46

8Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	32
teleop	181	137
endgame	64	45
foul	0	0
total	288	214

Result

Final score

288 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 pts

Match videos

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