Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

254.65 – 166.35

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

257 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 39 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 456.2 ±10.5

9558The Steel Vipers

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 13.61Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 134.43Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5843Flurb

Season APEX 144.7Event APEX 106.61Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 423.7 ±11.1

6120CyberStangs

Season APEX 78.1Event APEX 47.4Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7211Hollywood

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 55.24Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 63.71Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9558, 1498, 5843

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9558, 1498, 5843

Auto

41.2 16%

Teleop

145.7 57%

Endgame

66.9 26%

Strengths

· 1498 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6120, 7211, 51

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6120, 7211, 51

Auto

16.7 10%

Teleop

96.1 60%

Endgame

47.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score254.7pts

Blue projected score166.4pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.3
Score range: 140–281
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 499 vs event baseline 143.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

456.2Season APEX423.7

41.2Auto16.7

145.7Teleop96.1

66.9Endgame47

6Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	28
teleop	162	141
endgame	60	68
foul	0	5
total	257	242

Result

Final score

257 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 39 pts

Match videos

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