Qualification · Qualification 9
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
108.41 – 0
81%19%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
166 – 66
Prediction correct · off by 61.8 points
Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 349.6 ±11.7
Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 45.14Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 26.1Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 66.2Event APEX 37.17Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.7 ±12.1
Season APEX 56.5Event APEX -4.73Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 11.43Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 62.1Event APEX -12.36Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4779, 894, 453
63
/ 100 compatProjected
108.4 pts
~2.2 RP (district)
Teams: 4779, 894, 453
Auto
12.2 11%
Teleop
62.4 59%
Endgame
31.7 30%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4130, 8728, 9251
8
/ 100 compatProjected
-5.7 pts
~0.8 RP (district)
Teams: 4130, 8728, 9251
Auto
4.0 0%
Teleop
-13.7 100%
Endgame
3.4 0%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.23 · Blue 0.83
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score108.4pts
Blue projected score-5.7pts
Red win probability81%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 57%, blue 40%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 108.4
- Score range
- -21–129
- Upset likelihood
- 19%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
349.6Season APEX247.7
12.2Auto4
62.4Teleop-13.7
31.7Endgame3.4
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 23 | 13 |
| teleop | 109 | 28 |
| endgame | 34 | 25 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 166 | 66 |
Result
Final score
166 – 66
Prediction correct · off by 61.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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