Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.57 – 85.24

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 83.2 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 180 ±13.9

4961Shock and Awe-sum

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 25.71Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9252Wingspan

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 20Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9183RoboComets

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 10.86Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 576.9 ±9.3

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 53.14Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 21.24Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 10.86Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4961, 9252, 9183

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4961, 9252, 9183

Auto

10.6 20%

Teleop

29.7 57%

Endgame

12.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 33, 10349, 1718

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 33, 10349, 1718

Auto

13.1 16%

Teleop

53.0 63%

Endgame

17.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score56.6pts

Blue projected score85.2pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.7
Score range: 37–105
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 112.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

180Season APEX576.9

10.6Auto13.1

29.7Teleop53

12Endgame17.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	42
teleop	8	146
endgame	16	44
foul	0	0
total	37	232

Result

Final score

37 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 83.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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