Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

286.2 – 215.9

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

293 – 377

Prediction missed · off by 84 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 746.2 ±8.7

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 151.18Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 29.03Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 105.99Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 428.7 ±11.2

3539Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 243.7Event APEX 143.29Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4779RoboSapiens

Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 62.24Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6091Eagle 1

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 10.37Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 33, 1506, 9245

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 33, 1506, 9245

Auto

58.7 20%

Teleop

168.6 59%

Endgame

60.3 21%

Strengths

· 33 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3539, 4779, 6091

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3539, 4779, 6091

Auto

45.5 21%

Teleop

121.9 57%

Endgame

45.1 21%

Strengths

· 3539 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score286.2pts

Blue projected score215.9pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.3
Score range: 192–310
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 670 vs event baseline 132.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

746.2Season APEX428.7

58.7Auto45.5

168.6Teleop121.9

60.3Endgame45.1

39Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	80
teleop	143	200
endgame	105	97
foul	5	0
total	293	377

Result

Final score

293 – 377

Prediction missed · off by 84 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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