Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

147.87 – 104.68

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

157 – 192

Prediction missed · off by 48.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 351.2 ±11.7

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 94.55Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7211Hollywood

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 39.36Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7247Magical Smurfs

Season APEX 62.2Event APEX 13.96Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 497.1 ±10.7

5214The Mighty CavBots

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 17.2Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 43.34Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 44.14Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8280, 7211, 7247

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8280, 7211, 7247

Auto

22.4 15%

Teleop

71.0 48%

Endgame

53.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5214, 818, 51

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5214, 818, 51

Auto

17.8 18%

Teleop

47.0 48%

Endgame

32.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score147.9pts

Blue projected score104.7pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.2
Score range: 81–172
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 349 vs event baseline 131.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

351.2Season APEX497.1

22.4Auto17.8

71Teleop47

53.8Endgame32.3

0Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	17
teleop	98	113
endgame	38	62
foul	0	0
total	157	192

Result

Final score

157 – 192

Prediction missed · off by 48.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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