Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.15 – 173.04

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 29.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 371.6 ±12.4

4961Shock and Awe-sum

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 7.94Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 59.18Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5612Robo-Raptors

Season APEX 81Event APEX 18.03Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 438 ±11.7

453Rockem Sockem Robotics

Season APEX 66.2Event APEX 34.07Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5843Flurb

Season APEX 144.7Event APEX 94.52Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 44.45Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4961, 10349, 5612

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4961, 10349, 5612

Auto

25.4 30%

Teleop

45.6 54%

Endgame

13.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 453, 5843, 11493

/ 100 compat

Projected

173 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 453, 5843, 11493

Auto

27.8 17%

Teleop

83.9 51%

Endgame

53.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.2pts

Blue projected score173pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -87.9
Score range: 61–197
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 318 vs event baseline 131.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

371.6Season APEX438

25.4Auto27.8

45.6Teleop83.9

13.8Endgame53.1

30Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	30
teleop	56	115
endgame	37	56
foul	0	5
total	112	206

Result

Final score

112 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 29.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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