Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

168.28 – 83.31

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

204 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 29 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 385.5 ±11.7

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 122.99Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6344Yale Jiggawattz

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 14.47Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6120CyberStangs

Season APEX 78.1Event APEX 30.82Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.4 ±11.7

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 45.91Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5860Full Metal Muskrats

Season APEX 103.3Event APEX 14.69Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9252Wingspan

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 22.71Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1498, 6344, 6120

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1498, 6344, 6120

Auto

30.3 18%

Teleop

99.9 59%

Endgame

38.6 23%

Strengths

· 1498 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 818, 5860, 9252

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 818, 5860, 9252

Auto

9.5 13%

Teleop

45.0 59%

Endgame

21.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168.3pts

Blue projected score83.3pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85
Score range: 59–192
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 132.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

385.5Season APEX347.4

30.3Auto9.5

99.9Teleop45

38.6Endgame21.3

14Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	17
teleop	154	20
endgame	32	24
foul	0	0
total	204	61

Result

Final score

204 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 29 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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