Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

66.22 – 39.37

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

167 – 216

Prediction missed · off by 138.7 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 536.7 ±10.5

5926Da Moose

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX -Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX -Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 33.14Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360 ±12.4

4994Kingston Robo-Cards

Season APEX 48.4Event APEX 6.29Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX -Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5214The Mighty CavBots

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX -Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5926, 51, 11493

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5926, 51, 11493

Auto

13.4 20%

Teleop

34.8 53%

Endgame

18.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4994, 1498, 5214

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4994, 1498, 5214

Auto

13.1 33%

Teleop

16.5 42%

Endgame

9.8 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score66.2pts

Blue projected score39.4pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.9
Score range: 21–84
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 383 vs event baseline 99.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

536.7Season APEX360

3.4Auto3.1

18.3Teleop0

11.4Endgame3.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	31
teleop	87	146
endgame	63	39
foul	0	0
total	167	216

Result

Final score

167 – 216

Prediction missed · off by 138.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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