Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.56 – 101.05

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

88 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217.1 ±12.7

6344Yale Jiggawattz

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 12.98Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4130The Blue Devils

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 21.84Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5860Full Metal Muskrats

Season APEX 103.3Event APEX 12.74Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 383 ±11.7

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 46.31Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3667Mecanum Knights

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 46.05Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4961Shock and Awe-sum

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 8.69Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6344, 4130, 5860

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6344, 4130, 5860

Auto

5.2 11%

Teleop

31.9 68%

Endgame

9.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 51, 3667, 4961

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 51, 3667, 4961

Auto

23.5 24%

Teleop

49.1 50%

Endgame

25.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score47.6pts

Blue projected score101.1pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.5
Score range: 25–124
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 209 vs event baseline 129.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217.1Season APEX383

5.2Auto23.5

31.9Teleop49.1

9.6Endgame25.6

10Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	19
teleop	49	66
endgame	9	36
foul	10	0
total	88	121

Result

Final score

88 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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