Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

145.82 – 94.1

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

141 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 19.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342.2 ±12.4

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 101.5Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7597Team HorsePowered

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 42.4Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7813New Haven RoboRaptors

Season APEX 41Event APEX 1.92Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263.9 ±12.7

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 19.74Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7247Magical Smurfs

Season APEX 62.2Event APEX 12.01Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5926Da Moose

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 62.35Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2851, 7597, 7813

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2851, 7597, 7813

Auto

34.2 25%

Teleop

77.1 55%

Endgame

28.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8728, 7247, 5926

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8728, 7247, 5926

Auto

27.9 30%

Teleop

53.9 57%

Endgame

12.4 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score145.8pts

Blue projected score94.1pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.7
Score range: 70–170
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 130.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342.2Season APEX263.9

34.2Auto27.9

77.1Teleop53.9

28Endgame12.4

47Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	20
teleop	81	39
endgame	6	64
foul	0	5
total	141	128

Result

Final score

141 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 19.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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