Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

200.79 – 182.41

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

210 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 486.9 ±9.8

4779RoboSapiens

Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 63.05Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 46.66Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5843Flurb

Season APEX 144.7Event APEX 91.08Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 386.2 ±12.4

5612Robo-Raptors

Season APEX 81Event APEX 16.9Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3539Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 243.7Event APEX 143.84Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5214The Mighty CavBots

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 21.67Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4779, 818, 5843

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4779, 818, 5843

Auto

28.9 15%

Teleop

112.3 58%

Endgame

52.8 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5612, 3539, 5214

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5612, 3539, 5214

Auto

53.8 30%

Teleop

106.5 59%

Endgame

21.1 12%

Strengths

· 3539 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score200.8pts

Blue projected score182.4pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.4
Score range: 159–224
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 372 vs event baseline 129.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

486.9Season APEX386.2

28.9Auto53.8

112.3Teleop106.5

52.8Endgame21.1

45Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	56
teleop	121	44
endgame	55	57
foul	0	5
total	210	162

Result

Final score

210 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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