Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

45.19 – 163.81

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

53 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 28.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 332.6 ±12.2

9251EliteBots

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 8.96Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 43.81Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8364Rising Stars Academy - Nebulas

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX -7.58Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 510.8 ±10.7

9252Wingspan

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 19.12Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 103.22Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 41.47Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9251, 11493, 8364

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9251, 11493, 8364

Auto

7.6 16%

Teleop

6.3 13%

Endgame

33.3 71%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9252, 9245, 51

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9252, 9245, 51

Auto

26.9 17%

Teleop

84.6 53%

Endgame

48.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score45.2pts

Blue projected score163.8pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -118.6
Score range: 22–187
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 266 vs event baseline 129.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

332.6Season APEX510.8

7.6Auto26.9

6.3Teleop84.6

33.3Endgame48.2

48Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	58
teleop	16	97
endgame	12	58
foul	0	0
total	53	213

Result

Final score

53 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 28.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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