Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

150.96 – 85.91

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

179 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 29.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 468.2 ±10.5

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 122.32Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 20.43Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5860Full Metal Muskrats

Season APEX 103.3Event APEX 8.21Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.8 ±13.3

7813New Haven RoboRaptors

Season APEX 41Event APEX 3.09Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7211Hollywood

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 43.26Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

453Rockem Sockem Robotics

Season APEX 66.2Event APEX 39.56Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1498, 1718, 5860

/ 100 compat

Projected

151 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1498, 1718, 5860

Auto

23.0 15%

Teleop

88.7 59%

Endgame

39.4 26%

Strengths

· 1498 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7813, 7211, 453

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7813, 7211, 453

Auto

13.2 17%

Teleop

41.7 54%

Endgame

22.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score151pts

Blue projected score85.9pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.1
Score range: 63–174
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 129.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

468.2Season APEX215.8

23Auto13.2

88.7Teleop41.7

39.4Endgame22.7

21Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	9
teleop	127	41
endgame	29	5
foul	5	0
total	179	55

Result

Final score

179 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 29.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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