Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

170.55 – 129.24

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

236 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 345.7 ±11.7

9252Wingspan

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 12.91Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3539Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 243.7Event APEX 139.1Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4130The Blue Devils

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 18.54Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 242.8 ±12.8

5843Flurb

Season APEX 144.7Event APEX 91.73Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8364Rising Stars Academy - Nebulas

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX -5.65Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7597Team HorsePowered

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 43.16Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9252, 3539, 4130

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9252, 3539, 4130

Auto

38.5 23%

Teleop

91.3 55%

Endgame

36.4 22%

Strengths

· 3539 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5843, 8364, 7597

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5843, 8364, 7597

Auto

22.1 19%

Teleop

53.3 45%

Endgame

43.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score170.5pts

Blue projected score129.2pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.3
Score range: 106–194
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 362 vs event baseline 129.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

345.7Season APEX242.8

38.5Auto22.1

91.3Teleop53.3

36.4Endgame43.8

80Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	23
teleop	125	47
endgame	59	56
foul	0	0
total	236	126

Result

Final score

236 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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