Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

119.67 – 145.34

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

130 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 53 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 421.2 ±10.5

4779RoboSapiens

Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 62.31Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 44.09Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5167Vi-Bots

Season APEX 40.6Event APEX 13.27Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380.5 ±11.1

5926Da Moose

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 47.46Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 92.55Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9558The Steel Vipers

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 5.33Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4779, 51, 5167

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4779, 51, 5167

Auto

11.1 9%

Teleop

66.3 56%

Endgame

41.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5926, 2851, 9558

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5926, 2851, 9558

Auto

39.8 27%

Teleop

83.4 57%

Endgame

23.7 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score119.7pts

Blue projected score145.3pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.7
Score range: 97–168
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 371 vs event baseline 128.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

421.2Season APEX380.5

11.1Auto39.8

66.3Teleop83.4

41Endgame23.7

59Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	41
teleop	62	131
endgame	41	69
foul	0	0
total	130	241

Result

Final score

130 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 53 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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