Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.17 – 102.36

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

113 – 15

Prediction missed · off by 65.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 211.5 ±13.3

6091Eagle 1

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 12.74Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5214The Mighty CavBots

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 18.95Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7211Hollywood

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 38.48Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 378.8 ±12.2

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 58.07Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5860Full Metal Muskrats

Season APEX 103.3Event APEX 19.32Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4994Kingston Robo-Cards

Season APEX 48.4Event APEX 24.97Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6091, 5214, 7211

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6091, 5214, 7211

Auto

14.4 21%

Teleop

29.7 43%

Endgame

24.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11493, 5860, 4994

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11493, 5860, 4994

Auto

16.0 15%

Teleop

49.4 48%

Endgame

38.2 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.2pts

Blue projected score102.4pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.2
Score range: 47–125
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 128 vs event baseline 129.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

211.5Season APEX378.8

14.4Auto16

29.7Teleop49.4

24.4Endgame38.2

32Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	0
teleop	63	10
endgame	24	5
foul	15	0
total	113	15

Result

Final score

113 – 15

Prediction missed · off by 65.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.