Qualification · Qualification 57
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
169.74 – 112.82
67%33%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
164 – 157
Prediction correct · off by 25 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.9 ±10.7
Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 15.49Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 51.6Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 102.65Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.5 ±12.2
Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 77.39Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 41Event APEX -1.61Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 37.04Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9183, 10349, 8280
72
/ 100 compatProjected
169.7 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 9183, 10349, 8280
Auto
23.6 14%
Teleop
89.3 53%
Endgame
55.9 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 894, 7813, 3667
57
/ 100 compatProjected
112.8 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 894, 7813, 3667
Auto
27.5 24%
Teleop
49.9 44%
Endgame
36.9 32%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.24
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score169.7pts
Blue projected score112.8pts
Red win probability67%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 54%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 56.9
- Score range
- 90–193
- Upset likelihood
- 33%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
434.9Season APEX241.5
23.6Auto27.5
89.3Teleop49.9
55.9Endgame36.9
23Consistency35
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 23 | 31 |
| teleop | 93 | 83 |
| endgame | 48 | 43 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 164 | 157 |
Result
Final score
164 – 157
Prediction correct · off by 25 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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