Qualification · Qualification 56
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
146.65 – 65.45
73%27%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
267 – 82
Prediction correct · off by 68.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 471.2 ±11.7
Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 9.1Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 85.3Event APEX -1.53Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 139.08Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318 ±11.7
Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 51.14Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 5.9Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 8.41Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8728, 4961, 33
67
/ 100 compatProjected
146.7 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 8728, 4961, 33
Auto
30.8 21%
Teleop
100.0 67%
Endgame
18.0 12%
Strengths
- · 33 anchors offense
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 46%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 818, 6344, 9251
40
/ 100 compatProjected
65.5 pts
~0.9 RP (district)
Teams: 818, 6344, 9251
Auto
16.3 28%
Teleop
33.4 58%
Endgame
7.9 14%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 46%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.97 · Blue 0.95
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score146.7pts
Blue projected score65.5pts
Red win probability73%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 46%, blue 38%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 81.2
- Score range
- 42–170
- Upset likelihood
- 27%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
471.2Season APEX318
30.8Auto16.3
100Teleop33.4
18Endgame7.9
97Consistency19
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 64 | 14 |
| teleop | 159 | 54 |
| endgame | 39 | 14 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 267 | 82 |
Result
Final score
267 – 82
Prediction correct · off by 68.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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