Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.2 – 207.46

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

69 – 323

Prediction correct · off by 77.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225.3 ±13.3

5612Robo-Raptors

Season APEX 81Event APEX 25.22Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

453Rockem Sockem Robotics

Season APEX 66.2Event APEX 47.3Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6120CyberStangs

Season APEX 78.1Event APEX 35.68Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 540.6 ±10.7

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 110.6Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 92.18Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7247Magical Smurfs

Season APEX 62.2Event APEX 4.68Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5612, 453, 6120

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5612, 453, 6120

Auto

28.1 28%

Teleop

57.1 57%

Endgame

15.4 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1498, 9245, 7247

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1498, 9245, 7247

Auto

48.0 23%

Teleop

109.0 52%

Endgame

52.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score108.2pts

Blue projected score207.5pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -99.3
Score range: 85–230
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 392 vs event baseline 127.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225.3Season APEX540.6

28.1Auto48

57.1Teleop109

15.4Endgame52.5

16Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	74
teleop	39	192
endgame	1	57
foul	0	0
total	69	323

Result

Final score

69 – 323

Prediction correct · off by 77.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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