Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

131.38 – 159.07

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

187 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.5 ±11.7

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 98.47Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3667Mecanum Knights

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 37.35Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8364Rising Stars Academy - Nebulas

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX -4.44Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 438.5 ±11.2

4779RoboSapiens

Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 54.48Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 83.99Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4994Kingston Robo-Cards

Season APEX 48.4Event APEX 20.6Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8280, 3667, 8364

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8280, 3667, 8364

Auto

30.4 24%

Teleop

58.5 45%

Endgame

40.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4779, 2851, 4994

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4779, 2851, 4994

Auto

28.5 18%

Teleop

101.0 64%

Endgame

29.5 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score131.4pts

Blue projected score159.1pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.7
Score range: 108–182
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 415 vs event baseline 126.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284.5Season APEX438.5

30.4Auto28.5

58.5Teleop101

40.2Endgame29.5

45Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	47
teleop	86	150
endgame	78	31
foul	0	0
total	187	228

Result

Final score

187 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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