Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

20.97 – 37.77

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

47 – 41

Prediction missed · off by 14.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.8 ±13.3

9251EliteBots

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 7.47Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6091Eagle 1

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 17.01Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4961Shock and Awe-sum

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX -3.51Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 143.1 ±13.3

7813New Haven RoboRaptors

Season APEX 41Event APEX 0.91Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5214The Mighty CavBots

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 24.37Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5167Vi-Bots

Season APEX 40.6Event APEX 12.49Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9251, 6091, 4961

/ 100 compat

Projected

21 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9251, 6091, 4961

Auto

9.4 55%

Teleop

6.9 40%

Endgame

0.9 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7813, 5214, 5167

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7813, 5214, 5167

Auto

21.5 56%

Teleop

1.1 3%

Endgame

15.5 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score21pts

Blue projected score37.8pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.8
Score range: -2–61
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 88 vs event baseline 127.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.8Season APEX143.1

9.4Auto21.5

6.9Teleop1.1

0.9Endgame15.5

74Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	21
teleop	21	13
endgame	12	7
foul	0	0
total	47	41

Result

Final score

47 – 41

Prediction missed · off by 14.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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