Qualification · Qualification 5
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
163.17 – 157.69
52%48%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
97 – 158
Prediction missed · off by 33.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.9 ±12.4
Season APEX 243.7Event APEX 157.53Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 41Event APEX -2.04Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 62.2Event APEX 7.68Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 351.6 ±12.2
Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 58.05Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 74.49Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 25.15Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3539, 7813, 7247
65
/ 100 compatProjected
163.2 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 3539, 7813, 7247
Auto
54.7 34%
Teleop
75.4 46%
Endgame
32.3 20%
Strengths
- · 3539 anchors offense
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 51%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7211, 4779, 9747
61
/ 100 compatProjected
157.7 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 7211, 4779, 9747
Auto
21.3 14%
Teleop
90.5 58%
Endgame
43.5 28%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 51%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.51
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score163.2pts
Blue projected score157.7pts
Red win probability52%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 51%, blue 51%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 5.5
- Score range
- 131–190
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
346.9Season APEX351.6
54.7Auto21.3
75.4Teleop90.5
32.3Endgame43.5
46Consistency8
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 69 | 15 |
| teleop | 19 | 84 |
| endgame | 9 | 59 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 97 | 158 |
Result
Final score
97 – 158
Prediction missed · off by 33.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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