Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

269.39 – 70.45

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

318 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 60.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 606.3 ±10.7

9747ElectroPanthers II

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 30.8Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 130.06Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 108.53Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 595.5 ±9.9

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 14.34Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 2.11Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 54Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9747, 33, 1498

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9747, 33, 1498

Auto

51.4 19%

Teleop

156.9 58%

Endgame

62.7 23%

Strengths

· 33 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1506, 8728, 10349

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1506, 8728, 10349

Auto

8.6 12%

Teleop

47.9 65%

Endgame

17.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score269.4pts

Blue projected score70.5pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 198.9
Score range: 47–292
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 461 vs event baseline 125.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

606.3Season APEX595.5

51.4Auto8.6

156.9Teleop47.9

62.7Endgame17.1

36Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	34
teleop	183	92
endgame	103	12
foul	5	5
total	318	143

Result

Final score

318 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 60.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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