Qualification · Qualification 45
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
108.23 – 65.72
63%37%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
167 – 37
Prediction correct · off by 43.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 368.6 ±11.7
Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 49.16Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 31.04Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 28.03Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 350.9 ±11.7
Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 20.73Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 22.22Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 40.6Event APEX 22.77Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10349, 7211, 7597
55
/ 100 compatProjected
108.2 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 10349, 7211, 7597
Auto
14.5 15%
Teleop
59.8 62%
Endgame
22.2 23%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 50%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1506, 9183, 5167
43
/ 100 compatProjected
65.7 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 1506, 9183, 5167
Auto
13.6 20%
Teleop
28.1 41%
Endgame
27.5 40%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 50%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.22
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score108.2pts
Blue projected score65.7pts
Red win probability63%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 50%, blue 44%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 42.5
- Score range
- 44–130
- Upset likelihood
- 37%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
368.6Season APEX350.9
14.5Auto13.6
59.8Teleop28.1
22.2Endgame27.5
19Consistency76
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 19 | 14 |
| teleop | 99 | 16 |
| endgame | 49 | 7 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 167 | 37 |
Result
Final score
167 – 37
Prediction correct · off by 43.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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