Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

140.55 – 71.7

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 125

Prediction missed · off by 57.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.9 ±11.7

9558The Steel Vipers

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 10.28Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8364Rising Stars Academy - Nebulas

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 8.31Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 121.96Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 292.2 ±12.8

7247Magical Smurfs

Season APEX 62.2Event APEX -9.34Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4961Shock and Awe-sum

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX -8.6Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5843Flurb

Season APEX 144.7Event APEX 89.64Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9558, 8364, 1498

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9558, 8364, 1498

Auto

18.5 13%

Teleop

85.0 59%

Endgame

39.4 28%

Strengths

· 1498 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7247, 4961, 5843

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7247, 4961, 5843

Auto

28.8 40%

Teleop

4.3 6%

Endgame

39.7 55%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score140.5pts

Blue projected score71.7pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.9
Score range: 50–163
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 204 vs event baseline 123.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.9Season APEX292.2

18.5Auto28.8

85Teleop4.3

39.4Endgame39.7

84Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	37
teleop	15	81
endgame	28	7
foul	0	0
total	79	125

Result

Final score

79 – 125

Prediction missed · off by 57.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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