Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.32 – 190.87

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 377.9 ±11.2

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 57.94Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9528The Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 3.75Rank 40Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 10.63Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 432.6 ±10.5

3667Mecanum Knights

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 42Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4779RoboSapiens

Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 59.46Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 89.41Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 818, 9528, 1718

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 818, 9528, 1718

Auto

16.3 26%

Teleop

36.5 57%

Endgame

10.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3667, 4779, 9245

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3667, 4779, 9245

Auto

45.9 24%

Teleop

102.5 54%

Endgame

42.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.3pts

Blue projected score190.9pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -118.5
Score range: 50–213
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 122.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

377.9Season APEX432.6

16.3Auto45.9

36.5Teleop102.5

10.8Endgame42.3

27Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	37
teleop	34	141
endgame	30	17
foul	0	0
total	93	195

Result

Final score

93 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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