Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

203.98 – 51.12

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

280 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 65.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 382.5 ±11.7

3539Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 243.7Event APEX 121.38Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

453Rockem Sockem Robotics

Season APEX 66.2Event APEX 35.65Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5926Da Moose

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 46.95Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.7 ±12.2

9252Wingspan

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 3.85Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 49.63Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX -2.36Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3539, 453, 5926

/ 100 compat

Projected

204 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3539, 453, 5926

Auto

46.5 25%

Teleop

107.3 57%

Endgame

34.9 18%

Strengths

· 3539 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9252, 11493, 8728

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9252, 11493, 8728

Auto

10.0 21%

Teleop

18.2 37%

Endgame

20.5 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.3 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score204pts

Blue projected score51.1pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 152.9
Score range: 29–226
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 386 vs event baseline 121.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

382.5Season APEX401.7

46.5Auto10

107.3Teleop18.2

34.9Endgame20.5

33Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	14
teleop	184	50
endgame	38	42
foul	0	0
total	280	106

Result

Final score

280 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 65.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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