Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

50.06 – 42.1

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 419.1 ±11.7

5860Full Metal Muskrats

Season APEX 103.3Event APEX 16.25Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7597Team HorsePowered

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 24.65Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 9.16Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 310.9 ±12.4

7247Magical Smurfs

Season APEX 62.2Event APEX -13.27Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8364Rising Stars Academy - Nebulas

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 4.14Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 51.23Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5860, 7597, 1506

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5860, 7597, 1506

Auto

6.2 15%

Teleop

20.9 50%

Endgame

14.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7247, 8364, 10349

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7247, 8364, 10349

Auto

24.6 63%

Teleop

-1.9 0%

Endgame

16.1 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50.1pts

Blue projected score42.1pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8
Score range: 20–72
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 166 vs event baseline 120.8.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

419.1Season APEX310.9

6.2Auto24.6

20.9Teleop-1.9

14.3Endgame16.1

72Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	8
teleop	79	28
endgame	18	23
foul	0	0
total	107	59

Result

Final score

107 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.