Qualification · Qualification 4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
135.49 – 150.34
45%55%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
90 – 70
Prediction missed · off by 62.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 423.7 ±11.2
Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 84.25Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 43.6Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 7.64Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 333.4 ±12.4
Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 22.72Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 18.9Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 108.72Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 894, 818, 4961
61
/ 100 compatProjected
135.5 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 894, 818, 4961
Auto
31.6 24%
Teleop
67.4 51%
Endgame
31.9 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6091, 9252, 2851
64
/ 100 compatProjected
150.3 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 6091, 9252, 2851
Auto
36.0 25%
Teleop
76.1 53%
Endgame
31.5 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.54
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score135.5pts
Blue projected score150.3pts
Red win probability45%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 44%, blue 41%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -14.8
- Score range
- 108–177
- Upset likelihood
- 45%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
423.7Season APEX333.4
31.6Auto36
67.4Teleop76.1
31.9Endgame31.5
36Consistency19
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 19 | 2 |
| teleop | 39 | 48 |
| endgame | 32 | 5 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 90 | 70 |
Result
Final score
90 – 70
Prediction missed · off by 62.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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