Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

107.13 – 50.54

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

172 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 46.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 347.4 ±11.7

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 75.85Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6120CyberStangs

Season APEX 78.1Event APEX 36.86Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7813New Haven RoboRaptors

Season APEX 41Event APEX -5.58Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.4 ±13.3

4961Shock and Awe-sum

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX -5.1Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9528The Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 12.16Rank 40Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7211Hollywood

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 43.48Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9245, 6120, 7813

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9245, 6120, 7813

Auto

23.6 22%

Teleop

53.6 50%

Endgame

29.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4961, 9528, 7211

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4961, 9528, 7211

Auto

8.7 16%

Teleop

20.5 38%

Endgame

25.0 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score107.1pts

Blue projected score50.5pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.6
Score range: 29–129
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 121.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

347.4Season APEX258.4

23.6Auto8.7

53.6Teleop20.5

29.7Endgame25

54Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	7
teleop	89	11
endgame	27	5
foul	0	0
total	172	23

Result

Final score

172 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 46.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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