Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

142.41 – 150.56

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

168 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 26 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 348 ±11.7

4130The Blue Devils

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 14.3Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6091Eagle 1

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 13.9Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 114.21Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 386.1 ±10.5

9251EliteBots

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 11.66Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 83.05Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4779RoboSapiens

Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 55.85Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4130, 6091, 1498

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4130, 6091, 1498

Auto

21.5 16%

Teleop

75.6 55%

Endgame

40.8 30%

Strengths

· 1498 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9251, 8280, 4779

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9251, 8280, 4779

Auto

28.8 19%

Teleop

75.4 51%

Endgame

45.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score142.4pts

Blue projected score150.6pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.2
Score range: 120–173
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 345 vs event baseline 120.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

348Season APEX386.1

21.5Auto28.8

75.6Teleop75.4

40.8Endgame45.1

35Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	20
teleop	90	104
endgame	66	53
foul	0	0
total	168	177

Result

Final score

168 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 26 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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