Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.6 – 119

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 36.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179.6 ±13.3

5214The Mighty CavBots

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 43.14Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5926Da Moose

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 56.49Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9252Wingspan

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 7.97Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 388 ±11.7

453Rockem Sockem Robotics

Season APEX 66.2Event APEX 53.88Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 10.94Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3667Mecanum Knights

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 54.18Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5214, 5926, 9252

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5214, 5926, 9252

Auto

26.2 26%

Teleop

58.1 58%

Endgame

15.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 453, 1506, 3667

/ 100 compat

Projected

119 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 453, 1506, 3667

Auto

32.7 31%

Teleop

53.8 52%

Endgame

17.6 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score107.6pts

Blue projected score119pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.4
Score range: 86–141
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 154 vs event baseline 119.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179.6Season APEX388

26.2Auto32.7

58.1Teleop53.8

15.5Endgame17.6

75Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	13
teleop	28	50
endgame	25	29
foul	0	0
total	62	92

Result

Final score

62 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 36.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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