Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

40.77 – 166.81

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

141 – 127

Prediction missed · off by 70 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.6 ±12.8

8364Rising Stars Academy - Nebulas

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX -14.93Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

894The Power Chargers

Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 42.78Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9747ElectroPanthers II

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 12.92Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369.3 ±12.4

7597Team HorsePowered

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 26.82Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9528The Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 18.36Rank 40Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 121.63Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8364, 894, 9747

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8364, 894, 9747

Auto

4.6 10%

Teleop

18.0 40%

Endgame

22.6 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7597, 9528, 1498

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7597, 9528, 1498

Auto

14.8 10%

Teleop

80.0 53%

Endgame

56.2 37%

Strengths

· 1498 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.86 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score40.8pts

Blue projected score166.8pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -126
Score range: 19–189
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 268 vs event baseline 119.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.6Season APEX369.3

4.6Auto14.8

18Teleop80

22.6Endgame56.2

108Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	21
teleop	67	81
endgame	42	25
foul	5	0
total	141	127

Result

Final score

141 – 127

Prediction missed · off by 70 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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