Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

150.15 – 58.68

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

187 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 32.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 358.9 ±11.7

3667Mecanum Knights

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 45.25Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6091Eagle 1

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 7.19Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 97.71Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 474.7 ±11.1

7211Hollywood

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 38.6Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 20.16Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX -0.08Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3667, 6091, 33

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3667, 6091, 33

Auto

28.2 19%

Teleop

83.9 56%

Endgame

36.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7211, 51, 8728

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7211, 51, 8728

Auto

13.0 21%

Teleop

12.6 21%

Endgame

35.6 58%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.06 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score150.1pts

Blue projected score58.7pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 91.5
Score range: 38–171
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 274 vs event baseline 119.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

358.9Season APEX474.7

28.2Auto13

83.9Teleop12.6

36.7Endgame35.6

96Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	13
teleop	102	61
endgame	23	13
foul	5	0
total	187	87

Result

Final score

187 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 32.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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