Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.67 – 106.25

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 250.6 ±12.7

8364Rising Stars Academy - Nebulas

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX -2.12Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6120CyberStangs

Season APEX 78.1Event APEX 52.49Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 29.3Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 493.8 ±10.5

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 63.31Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9558The Steel Vipers

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 11.47Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 31.47Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8364, 6120, 8728

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8364, 6120, 8728

Auto

19.7 25%

Teleop

43.9 56%

Endgame

14.5 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10349, 9558, 11493

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10349, 9558, 11493

Auto

26.1 24%

Teleop

48.6 44%

Endgame

35.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79.7pts

Blue projected score106.3pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.6
Score range: 53–133
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 156 vs event baseline 149.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

250.6Season APEX493.8

19.7Auto26.1

43.9Teleop48.6

14.5Endgame35.4

62Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	12
teleop	11	64
endgame	20	40
foul	0	0
total	40	116

Result

Final score

40 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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