Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

207.74 – 134.4

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

377 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 102.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 688.8 ±8.7

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 55.63Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 33.51Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3539Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 243.7Event APEX 118.6Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328 ±11.7

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 50.62Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4130The Blue Devils

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 19.42Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

453Rockem Sockem Robotics

Season APEX 66.2Event APEX 64.36Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2851, 818, 3539

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2851, 818, 3539

Auto

51.4 27%

Teleop

114.7 59%

Endgame

27.2 14%

Strengths

· 3539 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10349, 4130, 453

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10349, 4130, 453

Auto

19.1 16%

Teleop

53.9 44%

Endgame

49.0 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score207.7pts

Blue projected score134.4pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.3
Score range: 113–229
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 476 vs event baseline 114.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

688.8Season APEX328

51.4Auto19.1

114.7Teleop53.9

27.2Endgame49

21Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	25
teleop	243	52
endgame	52	2
foul	5	20
total	377	99

Result

Final score

377 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 102.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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