Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

31.91 – 36.64

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 31.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 151.2 ±13.3

5167Vi-Bots

Season APEX 40.6Event APEX 25.69Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4994Kingston Robo-Cards

Season APEX 48.4Event APEX 9.38Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7247Magical Smurfs

Season APEX 62.2Event APEX -3.16Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.3 ±12.8

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 36.73Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5612Robo-Raptors

Season APEX 81Event APEX -10.78Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9252Wingspan

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 10.69Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5167, 4994, 7247

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5167, 4994, 7247

Auto

22.7 69%

Teleop

-4.7 0%

Endgame

14.8 45%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1718, 5612, 9252

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1718, 5612, 9252

Auto

17.5 46%

Teleop

26.5 69%

Endgame

-5.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score31.9pts

Blue projected score36.6pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.7
Score range: 11–58
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 132 vs event baseline 116.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

151.2Season APEX241.3

22.7Auto17.5

-4.7Teleop26.5

14.8Endgame-5.7

79Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	37
teleop	10	28
endgame	20	12
foul	0	0
total	55	77

Result

Final score

55 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 31.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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