Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

40.86 – 168.58

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 46.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 195 ±13.3

5926Da Moose

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 45.42Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5612Robo-Raptors

Season APEX 81Event APEX -15.19Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6091Eagle 1

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 10.63Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 397.1 ±11.7

6120CyberStangs

Season APEX 78.1Event APEX 47.84Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7247Magical Smurfs

Season APEX 62.2Event APEX 23.49Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 97.25Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5926, 5612, 6091

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5926, 5612, 6091

Auto

5.8 14%

Teleop

32.8 78%

Endgame

3.4 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6120, 7247, 33

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6120, 7247, 33

Auto

58.5 33%

Teleop

81.6 46%

Endgame

36.5 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score40.9pts

Blue projected score168.6pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -127.7
Score range: 20–190
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 204 vs event baseline 114.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

195Season APEX397.1

5.8Auto58.5

32.8Teleop81.6

3.4Endgame36.5

170Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	32
teleop	32	56
endgame	27	31
foul	0	0
total	85	119

Result

Final score

85 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 46.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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